Global demand set to rise 40% by 2040, but supply remains under strain. China dominates the processing of many critical minerals.
A looming copper shortfall could stall the world’s shift to
clean energy and digital infrastructure, warns UN Trade and Development
(UNCTAD) in its latest
Global Trade Update this week.
The global
copper industry is entering a pivotal phase – one not only requiring more
production, but also smarter, more inclusive and technologically driven growth
strategies.
A rise in copper demand could be good news for Uganda which has embarked on revamping copper production in Kasese.
The Minister of Energy
and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa on Thursday handed over Kilembe Mines to Uganda
National Mining Company (UNMC) and Sarrai Group! This marks a new chapter in
Uganda's mining sector.
Kilembe
Mines is Uganda's largest copper mine, located in the foothills of the Rwenzori
Mountains With estimated deposits of over 4 million tons of copper ore and an
undetermined amount of cobalt ore, with approximately 2,800 acres of unexplored
acreage.
Global copper demand is expected to
grow by over 40% by 2040, but supply isn’t keeping pace. Meeting this demand
may require 80 new mines and $250 billion in investment by 2030.
China dominates the processing of many
critical minerals.
Developing countries risk missing out on value-added
opportunities if they remain limited to raw material exports, Smarter trade
policies, investment, and recycling are needed to close the gap.
The report calls copper the “new strategic raw material” “in
the new green and digital economy” and a test case for how global trade systems
handle resource pressures under strain.
Copper is essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy,
artificial-intelligence infrastructure, data centres and smart grids.
Yet
supply isn’t keeping up. Global demand is set to rise over 40% by 2040, but low
ore grades, geopolitical risks and long development timelines – up to 25 years
for new mines – pose structural challenges. Meeting projected needs would
require 80 new mines and $250 billion in investment by 2030.
Resource-rich nations export raw copper, miss value-added gains.
More than half of global copper
reserves lie in just five countries, namely Australia, Chile, Peru, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Russian Federation.
But most of the
value is added elsewhere. China now imports 60% of global copper ore and
produces over 45% of refined copper.
UNCTAD finds that many
resource-rich countries are stuck at the bottom of the value chain, exporting
raw materials but unable to industrialize. Tariff escalation – from under 2%
duties on refined copper to up to 8% on other finished products like sheets and
wires – can discourage upgrading.
Most major copper exporters also
fall below the global average in economic complexity, underscoring the need for
investment in infrastructure, skills and targeted trade policy.
“Copper is no longer just a
commodity – it’s a strategic asset,” said Luz María de la Mora, Director of
UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and
Commodities.
“Its market exposes the power
asymmetries that still shape global trade. That’s why we need to invest in
local value addition, scale up recycling and remove trade barriers that limit
opportunity. This is a moment where all countries can win – if trade is made to
work for development.”
Professor
Daniel Franks, Director of the Global Centre for
Mineral Security at the University of Queensland Sustainable Minerals Institute
says Copper is probably the most important metal of the energy transition, and
that's because
it
carries electrons and therefore is important in all of the technologies.
“And we have
a very large copper industry because we use copper for electricity and
communication.” he said.
Recycling now
supplies 1 in 5 tonnes of copper
In
2023, 4.5 million tons – nearly 20% of global refined copper – came from
secondary sources. The United States, Germany and Japan are top scrap
exporters, while China, Canada and the Republic of Korea lead on imports.
For
developing countries, copper recycling is a strategic opportunity. Building
local capacity can reduce import dependence, lower emissions and support
circular-economy practices to protect the
environment and use resources more efficiently.
Copper is a
test case for future trade strategy
The
report argues that copper is a test case for managing critical materials amid
global trade tensions, fragmented supply chains and shifting industrial
policies. These risks reflect the
broader
slowdown and uncertainty UNCTAD has cautioned against.
UNCTAD
urges smarter trade and industrial strategies – streamlined permitting, reduced
tariffs, regional value chains – to help developing countries move up the value
chain and share more equitably in the energy and tech transformations.
