Experts cite 2011 precedent, call for tighter control of campaign finance and voter bribery. Muhangi cautions that increased political spending, particularly large sums of cash stashed by politicians and later distributed in rural communities during campaigns, could flood the economy, destabilize the recently approved national budget, and undermine key economic goals, including the government’s target of attaining double-digit growth.
A coalition of civil society
organisations, including Anti-Corruption Coalition Uganda, the Alliance for
Finance Monitoring, and the Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group, have raised
alarm over the potential economic disruption expected from excessive
election-related spending ahead of Uganda’s 2026 general elections.
The concern is that unless urgent
and serious interventions are made, the country could slide into double-digit
inflation, reminiscent of the 2011 election cycle that pushed prices to
historic highs.
According to Pascal Muhangi, an
economist with the Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG), the looming
risks could drive up the overall cost of goods and services, placing even
greater strain on households already grappling with the high cost of living.
“Right now, we have 3 percent
(3.8) inflation, and many Ugandans are struggling with basic needs. If we allow
uncontrolled spending, we could see prices of essentials like food, rent, and
health care skyrocket,” Pascal warned. “Imagine what happens if inflation hits
10 percent or more, like in 2011. That would be devastating for ordinary
citizens.”
According to available information,
including Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) data, in 2011, election spending,
among other factors, triggered the annual inflation rate to 30.5 percent, which
was the highest the country had seen since 1993, when it stood at 34.2 percent.
Currently, Uganda’s inflation is
at approximately 3.8 percent. However, Muhangi cautions that increased
political spending, particularly large sums of cash stashed by politicians and
later distributed in rural communities during campaigns, could flood the
economy, destabilise the recently approved national budget, and undermine key
economic goals, including the government’s target of attaining double-digit
growth.
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Muhangi also pointed to the
likelihood of increased supplementary budgets and off-book expenditures covered
as classified, a common feature during election years, which could worsen
Uganda’s fiscal deficit. He noted that historically, the period between the 2011
and 2021 elections has shown a trend of economic distortion due to political
financing pressures.
“We risk slowing down our
current growth rate. Heavy campaign expenditure, coupled with possible
election-related violence, will likely scare away both domestic and foreign
investors,” he said, adding that heightened political risk raises the cost of
borrowing as lenders factor in uncertainty.
Beyond macroeconomic concerns,
the CSOs also decried the corrosive effect of campaign spending on governance. Henry
Muguzi, the Executive Director Alliance for Finance Monitoring, urged voters to
reject candidates, particularly those at the parliamentary and presidential levels,
who engage in vote-buying through cash handouts or material gifts.
“Offering money or goods in
exchange for votes is not just morally wrong, it’s illegal. These are the very
leaders expected to pass laws and approve the national budget,” Henry said. “Sometimes what we see as handouts is money that was meant to give a certain service, that
has been swindled.”
Muguzi also called on political
parties to reform their internal processes, especially in selecting
flagbearers. He further argued that primaries and nominations are often marred
by bribery and illicit activity, with both ruling and opposition parties
implicated.
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Christine Byiringiro, Programmes Officer at
Anti-Corruption Coalition Uganda, said that moving forward there is a need for Parliament
to fast-track the enactment of a comprehensive campaign finance law. The
proposed legislation would set clear spending limits, require public reporting
of campaign income and expenditures, and impose penalties for violations.
“Election campaigns in Uganda have become
synonymous with corruption and impunity,” Christine said. “Without a legal
framework to regulate campaign financing, we’re risking both our democracy and
our economy.”
