Uganda has registered 29,172 positive cases in the past month according to John Hopkins University coronavirus resource center which is 40% of Uganda’s total cases since start of the pandemic in March, 2020.
Dr Misaki Wayengera. Internet Photo
Wayengera, the head of the Ministerial Scientific Advisory Committee on
Covid-19 has said it will be hard to predict when the current pandemic wave
will hit its peak.
Museveni on Friday announced a total lockdown, Wayengera says its dynamics such
as whether people will respect Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) will likely
determine when the current wave will peak.
to tell you that we shall peak at this time. We are not out of the woods in a
sense that we are still in a very bad time,” he said in a phone interview. “The
numbers of people who are infected in the communities are too many. So it will
take us time really to clear this wave and we are still running behind schedule.”
National Planning Authority (NPA) says it developed a model in March last
year which predicts that the current wave is likely to peak mid next month. NPA
Executive Director Joseph Muvawala indicated that their model has proved to be
indicate that there is an increase in the number of new cases with a peak yet
to be reached. The model is predicting a total of 10,144 cases for the week
ending June 19th and 11,222 for the week ending June 26th,” Muvawala
“The model predicts that the curve is still rising and it will most likely
reach a peak in the middle of July. This implies that in mid-July, COVID19
cases will be reaching the maximum peak,” he said.
says the model is a spinoff of a partnership between the National Planning
Authority and Pennsylvania State University funded by the National Health
Institute, a US government medical research agency. The model, he said analyses
in-country and cross-border factors that influence the pandemic spread. Unlike
the previous wave, Muvawala says the current wave was triggered by internal
registered 29,172 positive cases in the past month according to the John
Hopkins University coronavirus resource centre which is 40% of Uganda’s total
cases since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.
beginning of June, Uganda has been registering more than 1,000 positive cases
per day with the highest positive cases (1,735) registered on June 13th. But
Uganda hasn’t surpassed the highest record of daily positive cases (1,859) of
December 10th 2020.
however, says he doesn’t count on models to tell when the current wave will
start receding. “Truthfully, as a scientist, I have told you. This is not about
modelling. You need to look at the reality of what is happening on the ground
in terms of commitment of people to follow SOPs which can interrupt the
transmission,” he says.
He says it’s not easy to predict how easy it will be to interrupt community
transmission given that it's highly dependent on human behaviour. The other
option, Wayengera says, would be mass vaccination but jabs aren’t readily
received 964,000 doses received from the Covax facility. Of these 869, 915 have been given to people
which is 90.2 percent of the vaccines the government received.
The country also
received 75,200 AstraZeneca vaccines through the Covax project last week.